Wow! Big news for the Rainmen!

In his press release, Mr. Andre Levingston announced that the Rainmen have left the ABA effective immediately and are not participating in the playoffs. This was great news and the timing was a bit of a surprise, although not really when one thinks about the expense that travelling to Quebec for the playoffs would have been, especially when it was pretty much written on the wall that the ABA had let the Rainmen down so many times that it would be almost absurd for us to stick around.

Furthermore, Mr. Levingston informed the press that the Rainmen would be looking into joining the NBA D-League. You don't have to go too far into my blog to see that I have been hoping for this for some time.

I really think the Rainmen will be a good fit in the D-League, despite some potential obstacles. Why? Here is a quick SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis:

- Erie, Pennsylvania was just announced as the latest D-League expansion team for the 2008-09 season. The Erie metro area has a population of 281,000. The Halifax metro area has a population of about 385,000. I think we can support a D-League team if the owners in Erie think they can make a go of it, in a much smaller city than Halifax. Ron Sertz, the director of basketball ops in Erie, seems to be the man behind minor-league sports in Erie. From what I can tell, Mr. Levingston seems to be making connections with guys who are the Ron Sertz’s here in Halifax that are obviously crucial to a professional team’s success in a small market like ours. STRENGTH. The Rainmen front office has learned a lot from this year’s experience and the population of Halifax can and will support a brand name like the NBA.

- To get a sense of what ticket prices may be like in the D-League, here is a link to the Erie franchise.

The prices look to be about 50% higher than what our tickets were in Halifax this season. Erie will have eight different seating packages available, from “Hollywood Seats” and “Courtside Suites” to “Endzone” and “Corner” seats. I think slicing up the arena in so many categories is a smart way to provide the opportunity for fans of all economic means to enjoy the game. OPPORTUNITY. Here is a chance to really fill up the Metro Centre, with a variety of price points which create demand for premium seating and give more people a chance to afford bringing their whole family to a game with the lower-cost seating choices.

- I really like the Season Ticket Holder Privileges part of the Erie ticket price program and I really hope the Rainmen have something along those lines next year. OPPORTUNITY. There is so much that can be done in terms of promotion next season. While ticket prices may be higher than when we were in the ABA, the product will be better.

- I just realized that the Rainmen intro montage with the piano music and shots of the Rainmen is the same music and concept that the NBA used in their Where Amazing Happens campaign. Coincidence? Can’t be. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. STRENGTH. The NBA will have to be impressed with the Rainmen organization.

- In terms of players returning next year, that will likely depend on a few factors such as which league we will be in, who the coaching staff will be, how many roots the players have made here i.e. girlfriends, and of course pay levels. We can’t expect the players to put the rest of their lives on hold if the pay is not commensurate with the commitment to come to Halifax to work. THREAT, assuming we want at least some of our players to return. I think we know who we want back!

- NBA Commissioner David Stern stated in 2005 that he planned to expand the league to 15 teams and to develop it into an NBA farm system, with each D-League team would have 2 NBA affiliate teams. Recently announced expansion teams in Reno, Nevada and Erie, Pennsylvania make it 14 teams. WEAKNESS. If the NBA is not receptive to opening up the Northeast, we can’t make them. The NBA already closed down 2 of its teams in the southeast when they decided to expand the league westward. Does the Northeast fit into their plans?

I figure the NBA will not expand too quickly, they have a very valuable product and diluting it too much by expanding the D-League without strict control over who gets a team is risky for them. This ain’t Joe Newman’s ABA! A total of 11 D-League teams have either folded or moved in the league’s 7 seasons. Considering the nature of minor league sports teams, this is a pretty respectable retention rate. By comparison, here is the Wikipedia entry for the ABA.

Check out how many teams are in the league this year and how many are defunct or have left for other leagues. Interestingly, the Rainmen are already off the list of this year’s teams.

- I will repeat my concern over the lack of D-League teams in the Northeast US. Erie is only 93 miles from Cleveland, who appears to be their NBA affiliate. Erie will be the closest D-League team to Halifax and it’s over 500 miles away from Boston, let alone Nova Scotia. Unless the D-League expands into the Northeast in a meaningful way, our team’s travel costs will be exorbitant and so will our competition’s.
WEAKNESS. This may or may not be a problem, depending how many other Northeast teams are able to make the jump to the D-League. However, the answer to that question may be that no other teams can or will do it.

- A lack of nearby teams and therefore higher costs will translate into higher ticket prices. What is the magic price point for Halifax fans? I don’t know, but I’ll bet that a price any more than $20-25 for an average seat will be perceived as too expensive. THREAT. If prices are too high, the fans won’t come.

Hmmm, pretty even SWOT so far, with 2 of each category. The Strengths and Opportunities seem to be fairly well-identified items that relate to the Rainmen’s existing organization, while the Weaknesses and Threats arise from unknown factors such as what will happen with ticket prices, who will be our competition and can we afford to travel beyond the US Northeast to play? If details on these latter issues become known, then this analysis can be firmed up to show whether or not the D-League is viable for the Rainmen.